Best NFL Picks for Week 3

Although last week wasn’t great by any standards, it was certainly better than my initial foray into the NFL in Week 1. I was spot on when I called for Tampa Bay to wipe the floor with Chicago, and if you got a better number than me on the over/under in the Saints-Pats game, you went 2-1. However, I was dead wrong on Jacksonville, as the Jags turned back into a pumpkin after a great performance in Week 1.

2017 NFL ATS Record
Week 1 Picks 0-3-1 ATS
Week 2 Picks 1-1-1 ATS

Houston Texans +13.5 at New England Patriots – ESPN and the talking heads continue to overreact to every little thing that the Patriots do. There was open discussion about whether or not the Patriots dynasty had ended after a season-opening loss to Kansas City, but New England rallied with a convincing win over New Orleans last week. Now, the talking heads are saying that all is right in New England and that this team is back, which has influenced this line.

Houston isn’t a bad team at all. The Texans only barely squeaked by the Bengals on the road, but they have a potential franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The rookie from Clemson is getting better with every snap and is slowly learning what it takes to win in this league.

He is buoyed by a great defense and a fantastic set of defensive ends in J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. These two can get pressure on the quarterback. I would feel a lot better if Brian Cushing were able to play in this one, as he could cover Rob Gronkowski, but this is a few too many points for New England to cover.

Miami Dolphins -6 at New York Jets – Miami should be laying a touchdown here. Although the Dolphins are coming off of a cross country trip to Los Angeles, the Jets have been just as awful as everyone believed through two games.

Josh McCown isn’t playing poorly all things considered, but this team has absolutely no talent. Jermaine Kearse was no better than the fourth-best wide receiver in Seattle and has instantly become the No. 1 target for Gang Green. There is no other option that has emerged yet and the second-best receiving option is ageless running back Matt Forte.

The Dolphins are banged up, as Miami’s two best receivers and running back Jay Ajayi are questionable for this tilt. But it sounds like all three are going to be able to go for this one.
The defense will limit the Jets offensively, and if the offense can get 24 points or more, the Dolphins should win and cover.

Denver Broncos -3 at Buffalo Bills – This looks like a trap line. Everyone loves Denver after it beat the crap out of Dallas at home this week. The Broncos totally shut down the Cowboys running game and made Dak Prescott look pedestrian in the victory, too. This is one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Broncos should be able to have their way against an offense that is one-dimensional.

Buffalo hasn’t really been able to move the ball through the air this year. The team traded Sammy Watkins before the start of the season, and Tyrod Taylor has had to rely on his legs. Defenses have honed in on this team being unable to throw the ball, and the Bills have managed just 24 points this season.

Meanwhile, Trevor Siemian knows exactly what he is and has been great in the role of game manager for Denver’s offense this season. Although there was talk of starting Paxton Lynch in place of him coming into the season, Siemian has shown that decision would have been ill-advised.

Siemian has this team clicking, and while the Broncos have yet to play a road game, they should be bigger favorites against Buffalo. The defense will be able to shut down Taylor and the Bills offense and score enough on the offensive side of the ball to get the win.

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