We weren’t all that confident backing the Chargers last week at home against Buffalo as our survivor pick, but it turned out that we had nothing to worry about at all. Nathan Peterman was historically bad, becoming the first quarterback to toss five picks in his debut game since 1991 – and he did all of that in the first half!
It’s now time to turn our attention to Thanksgiving weekend and the challenge of closing out this season without another loss in our survivor pool.
You know what the biggest thing is that we’re thankful for in Week 12? That we have the Patriots still available. It’s time to bust out the big guns for the holiday.
There’s obviously no such thing as a “lock” in the NFL, but this is about as close as it’s going to get. The Patriots are laying 17 points against Miami, the biggest point spread of the entire season to date. The history is overwhelmingly against the Dolphins in this game.
The Pats have lost exactly one game in November at home since 2011, and that was last season to a Seattle team that challenged for a spot in the Super Bowl. Even worse for the Fins is the fact that they haven’t won a game in Foxboro since 2008. The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in those games, and their average margin of victory is 18.3 points per game.
You could argue that Matt Moore is a better quarterback than the concussed Jay Cutler, and we would surely hear the argument. Last season, though, Moore led the Dolphins in one road game of any consequence against Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs; they were beaten 30-12, and the game wasn’t even remotely that close in actuality.
The Patriots also don’t look like they’re taking their foot off of the gas pedal any time in the near future. They’ve won six straight after a 2-2 start and have posted double-digit wins in three of their last four. This defense has been completely resurgent after a slow start as well, keeping all six foes on this winning streak to 17 points or fewer.
Then there’s Tom Brady. There’s really no stopping this man at this point. In his last four games, he has completed 73 percent of his passes, is averaging over eight yards per attempt and has nine touchdowns without a pick. Even the vaunted Denver secondary had no answers for the Brady Bunch in a home game played in prime time.
Mother Nature isn’t going to help out Miami, either. Temperature at kickoff time is forecasted to be in the high 30s, and there’s a chance for snow and windy conditions.
Simply put, everything is stacked against the Dolphins in this game, so they certainly shouldn’t have any shot whatsoever against the best team in the NFL in Foxboro.
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Past NFL Survivor Picks
Week 1: Steelers over Browns (W)
Week 2: Raiders over Jets (W)
Week 3: Packers over Bengals (W)
Week 4: Jaguars over Jets (L)
Week 5: Eagles over Cardinals (W)
Week 6: Falcons over Dolphins (L)
Week 7: Cowboys over 49ers (W)
Week 8: Saints over Bears (W)
Week 9: Texans over Colts (L)
Week 10: Rams over Texans (W)
Week 11: Chargers over Bills (W)