Well, if you’re a gambler, you know that losing a bet is inevitable at some point during the season, and last week, we suffered our first defeat thanks to future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger having the worst game of his career. Can you tell I’m still frustrated? Anyway, let’s move on to Week 6.
Matt Zylbert’s 2017 NFL Over/Under Betting Record: 4-1, +290
Week 1: ARI/DET O48 (WIN)
Week 2: SF/SEA U42 (WIN)
Week 3: CIN/GB O44 (WIN)
Week 4: PHI/LAC O46 (WIN)
Week 5: JAC/PIT O42 (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
OVER 46 (-110)
This is a bet that has a lot to do with redemption, as two NFC clubs will seek to get back on track in Week 6 when they square off in the desert.
Arizona is coming off its worst showing off the season, being limited to just a single touchdown on the road in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay managed 14 points in what could have easily been a win for the Bucs at home last Thursday night opposite the mighty Patriots.
But, there’s a lot of hope both sides can slide back into form. First off, the Buccaneers, despite being projected as one of the league’s top sleeper teams this year, have simply not been good with their pass defense, yielding 309 passing yards per game thus far, which is second-worst in the league.
That’s good news for Carson Palmer and his cast as they look to get back into the win column. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is actually having a decent season thus far, averaging more than 300 yards per game in his own right, shelling out six touchdowns compared to five picks while completing nearly 60 percent of his passes.
The key that will especially open up the passing game for Arizona should be the addition of Adrian Peterson, who joins the club after a trade from New Orleans. The Cardinals haven’t had an efficient running game all season after losing David Johnson, but Peterson should provide them with such while Andre Ellington can continue to be a menace as well catching passes out of the backfield.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay arguably has the better offense and they could strike for a desirable number on the scoreboard to help this over. The Cardinals defense ranks 24th in points allowed per game (25.0), and the Bucs aren’t the type of opponent to suddenly change that trend.
Jameis Winston has looked solid in his third year, completing 94 of 154 passes for 1,198 yards and seven touchdowns, versus only three interceptions. With a strong arsenal of weapons highlighted by studs Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, as well as the recent return of running back Doug Martin, this actually looks like one of the more potent offensive units in the NFL, and should continue on with their success in this important late-afternoon contest.
With the line at 46, it’s possible it may only take one crooked number to deliver this ‘over’ bet, though both realistically have a shot of doing so. Either way, it’s a bet worth making from the Week 6 slate.