Over the course of the last couple of weeks, underdogs have come in left and right in all of our NFL Pick ‘Em Contests. Yet leave it up to us to ultimately guide you toward two of the only underdog losers of the week in Week 4 of the season.
We did have one really nice pick come in with San Francisco over Arizona in a game that probably should have ended in an upset (and darn near resulted in a tie!). If nothing else, we’re due for some better fortune.
2017 NFL ATS Record
Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers – Geez, do we hate backing Blake Bortles on the road in the face of one of the best crowds in the NFL. But at some point, you get to the point in which you ask yourself whether a team is being valued appropriately by the oddsmakers. We’re at that point with Pittsburgh.
Sure, the Steelers are 3-1, but their loss to the Bears really brought up some tremendous questions. This team can’t defend the run all that well. Minnesota’s running backs averaged 4.8 yards per carry against Pittsburgh, while Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined to put up 268 yards for the Bears. Leonard Fournette has been beastly this year for the Jags, and he’s covered a lot of Bortles’ stupid mistakes. Jacksonville probably isn’t winning this game, but Pittsburgh doesn’t deserve to be an 8.5-point favorite against most teams in the NFL at this point.
Oakland Raiders -2 vs. Baltimore Ravens – EJ Manuel is awful. We’re not going to mince words. He was a loser in Buffalo and is probably never going to be a legitimate starter in the NFL again. That said, he’s an upgrade on both Connor Cook and Matt McGloin, the two men who replaced Derek Carr when he was injured last year. The Raiders have a better running game now with Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, too.
The Ravens got the snot beat out of them last week at home against Pittsburgh, and we don’t think they’re really ready to come out to the West Coast and defeat a team that is still really good even without Carr in the fold. The Oakland defense has held three teams to 20 points or fewer on the season. If this keeps up, the Raiders should take care of business against a Baltimore squad that has fizzled after two good games to start the campaign.
Houston Texans PK vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The 1972 Dolphins are going to be watching Sunday Night Football intently this week. The Chiefs are the last undefeated team standing in the NFL this year, and this trip to Houston could be a tough one. These two teams are in similar places right now with their franchises. Both teams traded up in the NFL Draft to take franchise quarterbacks, and both know that change is coming.
Houston has decided to already turn the team over to Deshaun Watson, and that’s been a brilliant move. Kansas City has left the team in charge of Alex Smith, and that’s been pretty darn brilliant, too. Yet the Texans defense is going to be the difference in this game. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney were game-wreckers last week against Tennessee, and we think they’re going to keep that up this week to end Kansas City’s undefeated campaign.