Another 1-2 ATS week erased all of the gains we made in Weeks 6 and 7, but we’re going to plug right along in Week 10 with a few more top picks for your NFL Pick ‘Em Contest. There are a slew of massive underdogs this week, and we’re going to take a rare stance against one of them in our NFL picks for the week.
2017 NFL ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: 0-3-1 ATS
Week 2 Picks: 1-1-1 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 2-1 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 2-1 ATS
Week 8 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 9 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Overall NFL ATS Record: 10-15-2 ATS
Los Angeles Rams -11 vs. Houston Texans – The Texans look like they’re finished right now. They played with zero inspiration whatsoever in a game that could have kept them in the AFC South race. Tom Savage finally threw his first career touchdown pass last week, but that came when the game against the Colts looked like it was said and done with. Savage did rally Houston close at the final gun, but that loss could sting for a while. The Rams are playing tremendous football and should be considered the favorites to win the NFC West at this point. Jared Goff’s resurgence sure looks real, and this defense is far more talented than its statistics suggest. If Houston can’t score two touchdowns in this game – and who knows how it would? – this game could turn into a boat race in a hurry.
Indianapolis Colts +10.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers might have one of the best records in the NFL on paper, but we still aren’t buying it. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t looked good for most of the season, and we’re still not all that sold this defense is anything to write home about. Indianapolis hasn’t been good either, but Jacoby Brissett has certainly been a solid placeholder for the injured Andrew Luck. That win in Houston last week wasn’t a cheap one. It was a game in which T.Y. Hilton finally looked like T.Y. Hilton, and that could go a long way to keeping this offense on track. This is a lot of points to be giving any team at home in the NFL.
New England Patriots -7 at Denver Broncos – It’s hard to lay a touchdown on the road with anyone in the NFL, but this spot is just too good to pass on. The Patriots lost off of their bye last year against Seattle, but in the two seasons prior, they crushed Dallas 30-6 and blew out Indianapolis 42-20 off of their extra rest. Brock Osweiler looks like…Well, he looks like Brock Osweiler. That’s to say, this isn’t a good sign for the Broncos if they aren’t going to be able to keep the Patriots off of the scoreboard. The Pats have kept four straight foes in the teens or below, and this is a good bet to be a fifth-consecutive game of the sorts.
Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers – A one-dimensional Carolina offense is laying more than a touchdown against a team whose biggest strength very well might be its rush defense. Something doesn’t quite add up here to us. Opponents are only averaging 94 rushing yards per game against Miami, and getting hard-hitting safety T.J. McDonald back on the field after missing the first eight games of the year is only going to help. The Panthers might have beaten up the Atlanta rush defense last week, but those 20 points were the most they’ve scored in a month. If the Fins can get to 13 or so, that might be enough to cover this game.