One more point from the New Mexico State Aggies would have given me a 3-1 record last week.
I was dead on when I predicted Georgia to wipe the floor with Tennessee and Troy to hang with LSU. The outright win by the Sun Belt’s Trojans was a huge shock and sent reverberations throughout the world of college football.
Vanderbilt and Florida went way over the low total, though, and the Commodores defense is starting to look gassed after playing some tough SEC teams.
2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Michigan State +10.5 at Michigan – Sparty has covered nine straight in this series, and they will be looking to make it 10 in a row in Ann Arbor this weekend. The Spartans are flying under everyone’s radar this season. They were blown out by Notre Dame early on, causing many people to lose faith in this team. Michigan State’s big win against Iowa last week, though, shows that this is still a solid team and a threat in the Big Ten.
The Wolverines have not been particularly impressive on one side of the ball despite their record. Despite the high-ish point totals, Michigan has struggled to move the ball against opponents all year long. Starting quarterback Wilton Speight will be out at least a month, so now it’s John O’Korn’s turn to try to muster some points with this offense. O’Korn has been decent this season, but there’s a reason that he was the backup to Speight.
This should be a defensive slugfest with the offenses struggling to move the ball. I don’t expect either side to score more than 24 points in this one as Michigan pulls out a narrow victory.
Boise State -8 at BYU – If I lose, I get what I deserve for backing a road team as a favorite in a nationally televised game. However, it already worked once this week with Arkansas State, so why not again?
The Broncos are better than everyone thinks. This team is undervalued after Virginia came into Boise two weeks ago and dominated the Broncos, 42-23, in a game in which the Cavaliers were a double-digit underdog. However, there are two things to keep in mind about that one. First, Virginia is starting to turn the corner under former BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Second, the Hoos won that game by throwing the ball, and that’s something BYU can’t do.
The Cougars have one of the worst passing attacks in the country, and it is affecting everything else on the team. They are second-to-last in total offense, and the numbers don’t look to be improving any time soon with their top two quarterbacks banged up. Koy Detmer Jr. looks likely to get the start this week, but no one knows for sure.
Boise State has had an extra week of rest and preparation, so look for it to get a sizeable win on the road.
Under 56.5 in Mississippi at Auburn – I have not fared well with totals this year, but there are a few reasons to like this one. Auburn has to travel to Baton Rouge next week and does not want to show much against an Ole Miss team that it should trounce.
The Tigers will be able to run the ball and control the clock in a game that should last less than three hours. Auburn’s great defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points yet this season, and it will hound Shea Patterson and the Rebels offense all game long.
Maryland +30 at Ohio State – The Terrapins may be on their third- or fourth-string quarterback, but this is too many points. D.J. Durkin’s squad has a solid defense, and Ohio State has not been the high-scoring juggernaut of old. Don’t expect Maryland to score a lot of points, but it will be able to keep the game close enough for a cover.
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