I should have just stuck with my theme of backing double-digit underdogs last week. I looked like a genius after North Carolina State knocked off Florida State, and my picks of Boston College and Iowa were fantastic, too.
However, I got cute at the end and decided to back Charlotte against Georgia State. The 49ers let me down with an ugly offensive performance and were held scoreless by a mediocre Panthers defense. The loss kept me from an undefeated week, but at least I’m getting closer to even after a poor start.
2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Georgia -7 at Tennessee – The Bulldogs are for real. That win over Mississippi State did enough to convince me that this is a team to ride the rest of the season.
Georgia will have revenge on its mind after what happened between these two teams last season. The Bulldogs looked like they had blown a big lead only to come back with what should have been a game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. However, a poor kickoff that was returned well and an answered Hail Mary from Josh Dobbs left Georgia with its head in its hands.
Tennessee just isn’t that good this year. The Vols could very easily be 1-3 and should be 2-2, if not for Georgia Tech blowing a late lead over this team. Tennessee doesn’t have a good quarterback to bail it out of mistakes this season, and the defense has looked really suspect, too.
Meanwhile, Georgia looks like it is turning the corner. Kirby Smart might be the first former Nick Saban assistant that turns out to be a good head coach, and he has this defense looking great. The play on offense has been superb, too, with Jake Fromm playing very well in a starting role.
I think Georgia will be able to consistently run the ball on Tennessee, and that is a recipe for a big Bulldogs victory.
Troy +20.5 at LSU – Troy isn’t the team we thought it might be at the start of the year. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS and have not looked sharp in some of their games. However, this team should not be this big of an underdog with the defense it boasts.
Troy hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game this season and has been able to stop the run. The Trojans are holding opponents to under three yards per carry through four games. LSU’s running backs are better than anything this team has seen, but Troy should be able to hold them in check.
The Tigers defense hasn’t looked that good either. LSU allowed a combined 63 points to Mississippi State and Syracuse over these past two weeks and had issues stopping the run.
Don’t expect the Trojans to shock the world with an upset, but they should hang close and get the cover.
New Mexico State +17 at Arkansas – This is a trap game for Bret Bielema and the Razorbacks. Arkansas had its heart ripped out by Texas A&M for the sixth straight year last week and now has to play New Mexico State before heading on the road for a conference game against a pluckish South Carolina team.
These aren’t the Aggies of the past few years. Tyler Rogers is in the process of putting together a great senior season at the helm of this offense, and the Aggies have looked competent enough on defense that this team might head to a bowl game.
Under 42 in Vanderbilt at Florida – Go ahead and call me a square for liking the under in this one. These are two great defenses, though, and both offenses struggle to put points on the board.
Florida was able to do enough on offense the last two weeks to get the win, but it still doesn’t have a quarterback. The team turned back to Luke Del Rio against Kentucky last week, and he’s certainly not the option that Gators fans want. Look for UF to do just enough to get the win offensively but not open up the playbook any more than needed.
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