Hurricane Irma took away what would have been a sure winner for me last week. Florida State was all set to stomp Louisiana-Monroe before the threat of Irma led to the game being cancelled and led to yours truly posting a 1-2 record for the week.
The lingering aftereffects of the hurricane have taken some of this week’s games off the board, but I’m still confident that I can pick some winners.
2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Boston College +13 vs. Notre Dame – The Eagles typically play the Irish tough. Three of the last five meetings between these schools have been decided by four points or less, and Boston College had won six straight before Notre Dame won each of those last five.
Brandon Wimbush has not played particularly well through Notre Dame’s first two games despite coming into the season with a lot of hype. He has completed just over 50 percent of his passes and is throwing for a scant 5.7 yards per pass.
He will have a hard time moving the ball against this Boston College defense. Although the Eagles results don’t look all that impressive, the defense has played very well. Boston College has a competent secondary that has held teams to just 177 yards per game over the first two weeks of the season.
It’s a surprise to see Boston College as a home underdog this week, so make the books pay.
Tulane +35.5 at Oklahoma – Everyone is high on the Sooners after their dominating performance against Ohio State last week. Oklahoma moved the ball with ease against the Buckeyes defense as Baker Mayfield made a strong case for the Heisman. He doesn’t have the talent that he did last season, but is still one of the top quarterbacks out there.
The defense stopped Ohio State’s offense, but OSU stopped itself just as much as Oklahoma did. The Buckeyes insisted on trying to create offense through the passing game and didn’t change strategy despite it being unsuccessful.
Tulane won’t be as stubborn as Ohio State was and will be more willing to take what Oklahoma’s defense gives it. Willie Fritz’s offense has really made strides in his second year as the head man at Tulane, and the team is not as one-dimensional. Fritz wants to keep the ball on the ground, but defenses now have to somewhat respect the Green Wave passing game.
Under 78 in Missouri vs. Purdue – This is a number that is just way too high. Missouri fired its defensive coordinator after a lackluster gameplan against South Carolina last week, but the Tigers defense isn’t as bad as people think. They sleepwalked through the first half of their opener against Missouri State and actually somewhat limited South Carolina’s offense, but turnovers killed them.
Purdue’s offense isn’t that good, either. Although Jeff Brohm has rejuvenated the Boilermakers to an extent, this team still doesn’t have a lot of talent at the skill positions and can’t be expected to put that many points on the board.
This game will be high scoring, but 78 points is too many.
Illinois +17.5 at South Florida – If there’s one thing we know about Lovie Smith, he can coach defense. Illinois is giving up just 4.3 yards per play thus far, and it has ridden its defense to wins over Ball State and Western Kentucky. This will be the toughest test yet for the Illini, but one they should relish.
Charlie Strong is picking up right where he left off at Texas. His results have been poor through two games with the Bulls, and although the team is undefeated, the Bulls have really struggled at points. The offense has not been nearly as electric as it was last season, and he is once again underperforming with his defense.
Illinois isn’t a great team, but South Florida needs to show something at this point. The Bulls haven’t proven anything yet and should not be laying over 17 points.
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