Last week, I nailed my top play of Michigan State to cover against Michigan, but I struggled the rest of the way. I was a little fortunate with Boise State and BYU, was somewhat wrong on the under in Mississippi State-Auburn, and was dead wrong on Maryland to cover against Ohio State.
Despite my middling record, I am very confident on a lot of games this week, so let’s go slam the man.
2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Purdue +16.5 at Wisconsin – My best bet this week is Purdue to cover the number against Wisconsin. I would love to get 17, but I don’t think it gets any higher than 16.5, and I’m not going to buy a half-point in a college football game.
The Boilermakers have looked rejuvenated under new head coach Jeff Brohm. This offense has a pulse for the first time since Joe Tiller was on campus, and the Boilermakers have been able to put points on the board against every team not named Michigan.
Wisconsin isn’t as good as advertised, and it hasn’t played a team that can exploit its deficiencies in the secondary yet. Purdue has a great chance to cover and a decent chance at going into Camp Randall and pulling off the outright upset.
TCU -5.5 at Kansas State – The Horned Frogs are coming off of a tough game against West Virginia, so a lot of people are putting them on upset alert here. However, as great of a coach as Bill Snyder is, his reputation as a giant slayer is not well-deserved. Over the course of his career, Snyder is just 22-48-1 against ranked teams, and he went 0-4 against Top 25 teams last year.
Further complicating things for K-State is the status of Jesse Ertz. The quarterback is a gamer and tough as nails, but he might not be able to go due to multiple lingering injuries. The Wildcats lean heavily on Ertz, so having him unavailable or limited would really hurt an offense that hasn’t been incredibly productive even when healthy.
Auburn -7 at LSU – There’s a myth that this series has been a tight, low-scoring affair in recent years. But three of the last four meetings have been determined by double digits and have gone over the total.
Auburn is really humming on offense after a slow start. Jarrett Stidham has turned the corner in Gus Malzahn’s scheme, and this is one of the best defenses in the country. Auburn has waxed three straight SEC foes, including the same Mississippi State team that blew out LSU just a few weeks ago, and it has had time to tune up while LSU had to play Florida last week.
This has all the makings of an Auburn rout that puts Ed Orgeron back on the hot seat.
Louisville – 22 vs. Boston College – What’s the cure for a Louisville defense that has struggled to stop anyone this season? A Boston College offense that has been absolutely dreadful against ACC foes.
The Eagles have scored a total of 27 points in three conference contests and can’t do anything in the passing game. They are a slow, plodding team that wants to control the ball and win with defense, but they haven’t had any sort of success with that this year.
Bobby Petrino isn’t afraid to blow teams out, and don’t forget that Louisville hammered Boston College 52-7 in Boston last season. Lamar Jackson should have a field day in this one.
Oklahoma -7.5 at Texas – It would be really nice to lay seven here, and it may get there later in the week. People are jumping off the Sooners bandwagon after two straight lackluster performances in conference play, but this is a team that dominated Ohio State in the Horseshoe earlier this year. Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in the country and has a flair for big moments like this one.
Texas is still struggling to find its way under Tom Herman. The Longhorns did not look that good last week against Kansas State, and they are lacking in consistency. A lot of people are going to like them to cover in this one, but the Sooners are the right side.
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