Best FCS Picks for Week 11

You’ve made a nice chunk of change if you bet all of my underdogs on the money line these last few weeks. Richmond and Montana both continued that trend for me in Week 10.

The two teams were around +200 on the money line and both pulled off upsets over highly regarded teams last week. Unfortunately, my other two picks were laughable losers as Samford and Mercer combined for just 23 points in a game in which I took the over, and Montana State lost outright at home as a 7.5-point favorite to Kennesaw State.

2017 FCS ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 3-0 ATS
Week 8 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 9 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 10 Picks: 2-2 ATS

Under 40 in Villanova at Rhode Island – Villanova’s offense is simply inept right now. Because the Wildcats do not have a competent quarterback, teams have loaded up against the run and completely shut down the offense. ‘Nova has scored 22 total points in its last three games and must be dejected after three straight losses essentially ended its postseason chances.

Last week, an average Richmond defense was able to shut out the Wildcats at home. If you take away a 60-yard reception by Simon Bingelis, Villanova picked up just 127 yards on 50 plays.

Rhode Island might be 2-7, but the Rams can still stop the run. Last week, this team held James Madison to under five yards per carry and the Rams run defense held up alright against Elon, too. The way to beat the Rams is through the air, and I just don’t think Villanova can do that.

I was stunned to see this game come out with a total of 40, thinking it would be in the mid-30s. Don’t be surprised if this game ends up with a score of something like 10-7.

Over 69.5 in Eastern Washington at North Dakota – The Eagles need to win big on the road. At 5-4, there is a chance that this perennial power doesn’t make it to the postseason, and the Eagles need to start racking up style points. Fortunately for EWU fans, this team has an offense that can drop the house on a number of squads. Even though star quarterback Gage Gubrud won’t be playing after getting cited over the weekend, this offense is very much plug and play.

The Fighting Hawks have allowed at least 34 points in seven out of their last eight games and are going to get shredded by the Eagles passing attack. Although Eastern Washington isn’t great on the defensive end, this unit is much better than North Dakota’s. I see the Eagles winning a 48-34 type game.

Liberty -16 vs. Presbyterian – The Flames get one final chance to beat up on tiny Presbyterian before joining the big boys in the FBS permanently next season. This transitional season has been one to forget for Liberty, but this is still an offense that can put some points on the board with Stephen Calvert throwing it all over the place.

The Flames had a four-game losing streak midway through the season, but it turns out that all the teams they lost to are pretty good and they scored an impressive victory over Duquesne last week. Presbyterian just doesn’t have the guns to stick with a team like Liberty and can’t move the ball through the air well.

Over 64.5 in Southern Utah at UC Davis – The Big Sky is all about airing it out and these two teams can do just that. Southern Utah has been steamrolling opponents lately. The Thunderbirds are gunning for a Big Sky title and have won four straight conference games by double digits. During this run, the defense has been a little overrated, though. It only held Weber State to 16 points because Stefan Cantwell got injured in the second quarter, and Eastern Washington turned the ball over four times against the unit.

Now, the Thunderbirds must face a UC Davis team that is rejuvenated under Dan Hawkins. The former Colorado head coach has the Aggies humming on the offensive end and quarterback Jake Maier leads the Big Sky in passing. This one will be a shootout.

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