Best NCAA Football Picks for Week 11

In four of the last six weeks, I have split my college football picks. While that has been great for the bookies, it has been bad for the bettors as I keep on losing you the vig.

Last week, I was spot on with my calls of South Carolina to cover the number against Georgia and the under in UTEP-Middle Tennessee State. Unfortunately, my pick of Arkansas to cover the big number against Coastal Carolina was a dud as the Razorbacks almost lost outright. I was a bit unlucky with my other defeat as Southern Miss played well enough to cover against Tennessee but couldn’t get it done.

2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 2-3 ATS
Week 8 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 9 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 10 Picks: 2-2 ATS

Florida +7 at South Carolina – The Gators aren’t this bad. Sure, Florida has lost four in a row and got steamrolled by Missouri last week. However, this is still a good defense and the Gators only lost to LSU and Texas A&M by a combined three points.

The line on this one seems to be very affected by Florida’s performance in Missouri, but the Tigers have been a team on fire in recent weeks. They are a big-play machine and there is a reason they are a double-digit favorite against Tennessee this week.

South Carolina is a decent team, but the Gamecocks have no business laying seven points against a squad—and defense—as talented as Florida’s. This is a Will Muschamp team after all.

Connecticut +38 at Central Florida – This game means far more to the Huskies than it does the Knights. Former UConn head coach Bob Diaco made this a rivalry game for the program two years ago. And while it doesn’t mean anything to UCF, it does to a UConn team struggling to find its identity.

Also, let’s be honest. Scott Frost is probably a little distracted right now. After seeing the Knights ranked behind seven two-loss teams in the College Football Playoff rankings this week, he knows UCF stands no chance of being one of the four teams selected. Additionally, Frost is the hottest name in the college football coaching world right now. He is probably listening to offers from a number of schools, so it’s hard not to get distracted with that going on.

Along those lines, look at what happened with Tom Herman and Houston in a similar situation last year. The Cougars actually lost three conference games even though Herman was being hailed as an offensive guru. I’m not saying UConn is going to pull off the upset, but the Huskies can stay within 38.

Over 46 in Florida State at Clemson – I’m going to keep putting my money on games involving teams from the Sunshine State here. The Seminoles defense is not as good as advertised. Coordinator Charles Kelly is as good as fired at the end of the year and this unit has to be exhausted after playing Syracuse last week. FSU’s defense was on the field for almost 100 plays against the Orange and is going to have some tired legs this week facing another up-tempo offense.

The reason I’m not just betting Clemson to cover the spread is that Florida State’s offense looked a lot better against Syracuse with Cam Akers performing like the superstar he might become. Jimbo Fisher’s teams have always played Clemson tough, and the ‘Noles will have something in store for the Tigers this week.

TCU +6.5 at Oklahoma – I would have loved to have gotten the seven in this one, but that number disappeared right after it opened. The Horned Frogs have played the Sooners tough since joining the Big 12, and this is the only defense that has had some success in stopping Baker Mayfield. On the other side of the ball, Sonny Cumbie is one of the sharpest minds in the game and has been able to have a ton of success against Mike Stoops’ defense. I really think the Horned Frogs pull off the outright upset in this one.

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