I’m now 22-15 ATS with my FCS picks this season after another winning week.
Once again, I called a Villanova game spot on as the Wildcats were unable to move the ball well without a competent passing game. My selections of Liberty to cover the number against Presbyterian and Southern Utah to play a shootout with UC Davis were right, too.
The lone loss on the slate was a bad one, though. I called for Eastern Washington and North Dakota to engage in a high-scoring affair, but the two sides combined to score just 35 points.
2017 FCS ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 3-0 ATS
Week 8 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 9 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 10 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 11 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Nicholls +3.5 at Southeastern Louisiana – For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Nicholls is a road underdog in this situation. The Colonels are 8-2 and their only two losses came against Texas A&M and No. 4 Sam Houston State. They have a decent defense that is allowing five yards per play and a run defense that is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Southeastern Louisiana is 5-5 and has beaten up on the dregs of the Southland. The Lions have one of the best ground games in the country and are averaging 5.7 yards per run, but much of that was done against teams with losing records.
The Lions have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. They lost by 10 to McNeese State and Sam Houston State, were blown out by Central Arkansas, and lost to Bethune-Cookman and Louisiana-Lafayette, too.
Southeastern Louisiana does have a big advantage, though. The Lions were off this Saturday and had time to rest and prepare for Nicholls. It’s notoriously difficult to prepare for an option team on a short week, but I think the Colonels have the personnel to get the job done.
Elon +22.5 vs. James Madison – I think that James Madison is far and away the best team in the nation, but this is too many points in a road game against a solid Elon team. The Phoenix have been great about playing teams close. The only time they were blown out was against Toledo and their only FCS loss of the season was a 16-6 road setback to New Hampshire last week.
James Madison has not covered a number this large against any good team yet this season. While the Dukes have kept the longest winning streak in the FCS intact, they only beat Richmond by 7, Delaware by 10, New Hampshire by 21, and Villanova by 22.
Both of these teams like to run the ball and trust their defense. That will lead to a game that the Dukes win—just by less than the number.
Eastern Washington -25 vs. Portland State – The Eagles need a big win in order to avoid missing out on the postseason. Eastern Washington is just 6-4 and although it does have a win over Montana, losses to Southern Utah and Weber State might mean this team will miss out on the postseason. It’s rare for the Big Sky to get four teams in the FCS playoffs. With Northern Arizona on the brink of the postseason as well, the Eagles need to hammer 0-10 Portland State.
The Eagles will have superstar quarterback Gage Gubrud back, too. He was suspended against North Dakota last week and this might be his last game of the season. He has not been nearly as productive with all of his weapons gone from last season, but he will be able to shred this defense. The Vikings allow 8.7 yards per pass attempt, so Gubrud can have a field day. Eastern Washington will win this one by 40 or more.
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