For the first time all season, I was perfect in my prognostications, going 3-0 ATS last week. I am now 13-9 ATS in my FCS picks and finally into the green for the year.
I didn’t need any sort of luck last week as all of my picks covered. Florida A&M never fell outside of the number in a comfortable cover against unbeaten North Carolina A&T in my best bet of the week. My GameDay pick was right on, too, with James Madison cruising against Villanova. Finally, my faith in Bob Stitt and the Montana Grizzlies was rewarded as they blew out North Dakota ahead of a showdown with Weber State.
2017 FCS ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 3-0 ATS
The Citadel -3.5 at Chattanooga – The Bulldogs know that they must win their four remaining FCS games if they have any shot at making the postseason for a third straight season. It’s been a rough year for The Citadel, as the offense has really struggled to get on track after so many losses along the offensive line. And the defense has had a hard time stopping the pass without superstar cornerback Dee Delaney shutting down one side of the field.
Things are far worse in Chattanooga, though. The Mocs’ top two quarterbacks are out, and new head coach Tom Arth is having to use a true freshman in his new system. The results have been anything but successful as Chattanooga is sitting at 1-6 and has had its doors blown off lately. The team’s last three losses have all been by 20 points or more, and it may not win a game the rest of the way.
The Citadel has lost three in a row as well, but it has faced three potential playoff teams in Samford, Mercer and Wofford. Its performance against Wofford last week showed that this team is starting to turn a corner and should be able to get back to its winning ways. Chattanooga’s freshman quarterback has been unable to stop throwing interceptions and won’t be able to exploit the weakest part of The Citadel’s game: its secondary.
Alcorn State +4 at Grambling – I was really hoping to get more points with the Braves, but it seems like the oddsmakers are onto how underrated this team is. Alcorn State nearly knocked off Grambling in the SWAC Championship game last year, and this team is much better than that edition. Lenorris Footman has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and the run game has been great with the three leading rushers all averaging at least five yards per carry.
For whatever reason, things just haven’t seemed to click with Grambling in 2017. I was high on the Tigers’ chances coming into the year, but they have put together some rather milquetoast performances and have not dominated the way you would have expected. They are 5-1, but they also haven’t played a real opponent since they were blown out by Tulane in the season opener.
The Braves are going to pull off an outright upset here.
South Dakota -10.5 at Illinois State – I have lost money all year fading the Coyotes, but this week I am going to hop on the train. They have been on fire this season and are now ranked No. 4 in the country after wins over Western Illinois and Youngstown State.
Meanwhile, the Redbirds have been a mirage. They started the season strong with four straight double-digit wins, but some of the teams they defeated turned out to be overrated. In their last two games, they have been dominated by Northern Arizona and Southern Illinois, so this line is a bit of an enigma.
There are times to back Illinois State. The Redbirds have a great run defense and are decent enough on offense. But this isn’t one of those instances.
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