It’s hard to imagine that I have posted only one winning week with my FBS picks all season. I keep finding new ways to lose with my selections and had two bets end up falling by just one point last weekend.
The writing was on the wall in the Florida-South Carolina game. The Gators kicked two field goals in the second quarter to go down by eight, and I knew what was going to happen at that point. In the other game I lost by one point, I was fortunate to lose by that little as Clemson-Florida State had no business going over the total.
If you’re following, I’m sorry. If you’re fading, you’re welcome. Without further ado, here are this week’s picks.
2017 CFB ATS Record
Week 1 Picks: —
Week 2 Picks: 1-2 ATS
Week 3 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 4 Picks: 3-1 ATS
Week 5 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 6 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 7 Picks: 2-3 ATS
Week 8 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Week 9 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 10 Picks: 2-2 ATS
Week 11 Picks: 1-3 ATS
Boise State -17.5 vs. Air Force – You might be surprised to find out that the worst run defense in the country belongs to Air Force. The Falcons are allowing teams to rush for six yards per carry, which has led to the team posting a disappointing record.
In the last two weeks, this offense has really struggled, too. The Falcons finished with less than 200 total yards of offense and were shut out by Army, and last week they turned the ball over four times in the first half against Wyoming.
The Broncos have no such problems stopping the run. Boise State defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a great job of getting the front seven to shut down opposing ground games, which has helped this team reclaim its place atop the Mountain West.
If you want an example of what Boise State can do against teams that are too one-dimensional, look at what it did against San Diego State. This defense was the first to shut down Rashaad Penny and that led to a 31-14 Broncos win.
Wisconsin -7 vs. Michigan – Everyone thinks that Wisconsin is a fraud, but no one is questioning whether or not Michigan is. The Wolverines are 8-2, but their best win came against a 5-5 Minnesota team. Michigan lost at home to Michigan State and got hammered on the road against Penn State and has not looked like the great squad that some expected heading into the season.
Additionally, the Wolverines are going to have to use an untested quarterback in this game. Brandon Peters will be the starter with Wilton Speight still injured, and he has not thrown the ball much in three games. Michigan has relied on its defense to carry the load as he’s only thrown 45 passes in those three games.
The Badgers at least have a decent quarterback in Alex Hornibrook and a great running game to boot. Although Michigan has the better defense, Wisconsin is going to win by double digits because of a balanced offense that will be able to move the ball enough.
Massachusetts +4 at BYU – The Minutemen have been pretty decent over the last month or so and have some really nice wins to their credit. UMass knocked off both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, beat Maine, and hung tough with Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi State in recent weeks.
Andrew Ford has proven to be a very good quarterback. And although he has to run for his life at times behind this offensive line, he’s a playmaker. Ford’s numbers this season are awfully impressive given the talent around him and the quality of the opponents he has faced.
BYU has looked better in recent weeks, but one of its wins came against a San Jose State team that might be the worst FBS squad in the country and a UNLV outift that has had some bad losses at home.
The Cougars are now on their fourth quarterback in Joe Critchlow and to make matters worse, he has a group of receivers that can’t get off the ball.
I love Massachusetts in an upset here.
Think you’ve missed out on all of the great college football contests because the season is nearing its end? It’s never too late to join our NCAA Football Pick ‘Em Contests.